In the last post, I included a cool picture showing the difference in imaging resolution due to AO. AO is very useful in direct imaging, because the higher resolution allows better differentiation between different sources. One complication that has always been as issue in detecting exoplanets accurately is that even if observers measure a light curve indicating that there may be a planet, the light dip might actually be due to something else, such as a transiting binary. This is of particular importance when wide-sky surveys are used, because each individual source has probably not been studied at length; therefore, the superficial appearance of their being a planet might be accepted when it should be rejected. Even when studied at length, the false positives may appear so similar to real planets that they continue to fool observers. This paper shows one specific instance where a source appeared to have a planet (indeed, it passed many of the ‘tests’ of planethood) but was actually a false positive. The fact that there is a false positive rate in all planet-finding surveys is a problem: this leads to the difference between a planet candidate and a confirmed planet.
One good thing about the Kepler false-positive rate (the rate at which things that are not planets are being called planets) is that it is not random. There are very specific reasons as to why a light curve might be altered to appear that there was a planet where one did not exist. Some of these reasons might be an eclipsing binary, “blend” (this is when a less bright star, not cataloged in Kepler, ‘mimics’ a planet) or the existence of a “hierarchal triple” (a multiple – three in this case, as its name implies – star system) (On the Low False Positive Probabilities of Kepler Planet Candidates, Morton and Johnson). Knowing the possible reasons that there might be a false positive in the Kepler data allows a statistical correction for this. Using approximations and creating probability distributions, Morton and Johnson developed a possible model for the false positive rate. Although this will not tell which individuals stars have planets, it makes the Kepler distribution as a whole more helpful, as observers have a way to estimate how many planet candidates, on the whole, are likely planets.
The process for determining, after a planet candidate has been found, whether or not it is a real planet can be lengthy. It also shows the importance of adaptive optics in confirming planets, as AO images can be used in either preliminary or follow-up observations. Many false positives are due to light being misattributed to an incorrect source, and adaptive optics reduces the degree to which this happens.
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